The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Commerce said a few days ago that foreign trade has continued to maintain a rapid growth momentum in the near future, including the role of “one-off factors” such as the sharp increase in the export of epidemic prevention materials, and “these one-time factors will not last for a long time, and foreign trade in the second half of the year will grow. It is gradually slowing down, and the foreign trade situation next year may be severe.” In the face of the possible large fluctuations in the field of foreign trade, the central government recently proposed cross-cycle adjustment of macro policies, with the purpose of keeping foreign trade running smoothly within a reasonable range and preventing major ups and downs from harming trade growth and market players.

Since the second half of last year, China’s foreign trade has been making rapid progress. The total value of imports and exports has been growing for 14 consecutive months, and the scale of trade has reached a new high in nearly 10 years, becoming one of the biggest bright spots in global economic and trade.

The achievements are obvious to all, but we cannot avoid the fact that in the foreign trade industry, most market players have a difficult life, especially those small, medium and micro foreign trade enterprises are in a dilemma – on the one hand, the “inflated box” is reappearing in the port,” The reality that a box is hard to find” and “the value of goods cannot reach the freight price” makes it miserable; on the other hand, knowing that it is not profitable or even losing money, it has to bite the bullet and take orders, lest it accidentally lose future customers. .

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Photo by Li Sihang (China Economic Vision)

The relevant departments have been paying close attention to the situation of the foreign trade industry. At the press conference of the State Council Information Office held a few days ago, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Commerce said that foreign trade has continued to maintain a rapid growth momentum in the near future, and there are many “one-off factors” such as the sharp increase in the export of anti-epidemic materials. It will not last for a long time, the growth of foreign trade in the second half of the year is gradually slowing down, and the foreign trade situation next year may be severe.”

From a practical point of view, it is no accident that China’s foreign trade can seize the “one-off factor”. Without the concerted efforts of the whole country to effectively control the epidemic, and without the support of a complete supply chain and industrial chain, the development of China’s foreign trade industry may be another scene, which no one wants to see. In fact, the current foreign trade enterprises have to face, not only the fading “one-off factor”, but also more pressure from the external environment, such as the issue of transportation capacity and freight that has attracted much attention, and the issue of rising prices of bulk commodities and raw materials. Another example is the pressure of RMB exchange rate appreciation and the increase in labor costs. Under the superposition of these factors, the market environment for foreign trade development has become extremely complex.

Taking the prices of bulk commodities and raw materials as an example, in the first seven months of this year, the average price of China’s iron ore imports rose by 69.5%, the average price of crude oil imports rose by 26.8%, and the average price of imported copper rose by 39.2%. The rise in upstream raw material prices will sooner or later be transmitted to the production costs of mid- and downstream manufacturing enterprises. If the RMB exchange rate appreciates, it will also push up the transaction costs of foreign trade companies and squeeze their already thin profit margins.

Based on the scientific research and judgment on the international economic and trade situation, since the second half of last year, the central government has repeatedly emphasized the need to stabilize the fundamentals of foreign investment and foreign trade. The development of new business formats and other aspects continued to make efforts to continuously promote the transformation and development of the foreign trade industry. However, the complexity of reality is much higher than the analysis on paper. In the face of possible large fluctuations in the field of foreign trade, the central government recently proposed cross-cycle adjustment of macro policies. harm to market players.

It should be pointed out that the focus of cross-cycle adjustment in the field of foreign trade will still revolve around the four aspects of stabilizing growth, promoting innovation, ensuring smooth flow, and expanding cooperation.

Steady growth, focusing on stabilizing market players and market orders;

To promote innovation is to vigorously promote the development of new foreign trade formats and models such as cross-border e-commerce, support the export of high-tech, high-quality and high-value-added products, and increase the overseas promotion of Chinese brands;

To ensure smooth flow is to ensure the smooth flow of foreign trade industrial chain and supply chain;

To expand cooperation is to effectively maintain the multilateral trading system and integrate more deeply into international economic cooperation by deepening international economic and trade cooperation, negotiating and signing more free trade agreements, and upgrading existing free trade agreements.

Some people say that the receding external tide has made China’s foreign trade show a scene of “getting to the bottom”. But what we want to say is that in the face of the new international economic and trade situation and new challenges, China’s foreign trade should show the strength and attitude of “Ren Ershan tsunami, I will stand still”.